Iran-Israel today

I continue to think that the 6 pundits that Judge Napolitano has on his daily show provide the best insight into the Israel-Iraq war.

BTW, while there are lots of photos of destruction in Iran, there are almost none from Israel, as the government has banned anyone taking photos or videos and sharing them online. Trump says, “Israel is winning” but Judge Nap’s guests point out that Israel’s one international airport has been taken out, as well as two of its three large ports. Israel’s ability to defend itself is rapidly disappearing.

Larry Johnson notes that launching one anti-missile missile (the Iron Dome) costs 13 million dollars, while an Iranian missile costs $200,000-500,000. Furthermore, he notes that Iran can produce more missiles in a quarter than the US and Europe combined can produce in a year.

Iran launched its oldest and slowest missiles first, using up Israel’s anti-missile defenses. Only now is it using its better missiles and many of them are reaching their targets. Fattah is the best.

According to an Iranian source,

“Fattah… is a precision-guided two-stage solid-fueled rocket with a range of 1,400 km and a terminal speed of Mach 13 to 15.

This speed, along with movable nozzles that allow the missile to maneuver in all directions both in and out of the Earth’s atmosphere, makes it immune to interception by all existing anti-missile systems.”

You might recall that last time Israel attacked Iran, Iran sent a battery of slow missiles back, which were intercepted by Israel’s anti-missile systems. I think then that Scott Ritter noted that Iran might have been testing Israel’s defenses, and possibly also may have tried to make it appear that was all they could respond with.

Israel still has its fighter planes, but with an alleged 3 F-35s shot down (but perhaps less) that cost $100 million apiece, Israel does not want to risk them. From today’s NYT:

The longer Israel waits for Mr. Trump, the greater the strain on its air defense system. To keep out Iran’s ballistic missile barrages, Israel is burning through its stocks of missile interceptors, forcing it to prioritize the protection of some areas over others. As time goes on, that raises the risk of more missiles hitting both civilian neighborhoods and strategic security sites.

In a war of attrition, Iran will win. It has ten times Israel’s population, 27 times its land area, more missiles than Israel can muster (as US stores are running low since they have also been supplying Ukraine) and no one sensible thinks even the 30,000 lb bunker busters (MOAB) will destroy Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. See discussion by MIT emeritus professor Ted Postol if you disagree.

The NY Times says polling shows Israel’s government has huge popular support—the best it has had since October 7, 2023. That should tell everyone something: war or terrorism, coupled with massive propaganda, is tremendously effective at mobilizing a population. Until it learns the truth, when it runs in the opposite direction. Bibi still has the people, but for how long? Imagine a government relying on polling in the middle of a war. Unsurprisingly, rather than the war bringing about regime change in Iran, the Iranians have come together in deep support of their nation and government.

Former CIA officer and Presidential briefer Ray McGovern brought up my point today: that Bibi may have started the war to avoid going to jail on corruption charges, which have followed him for many years. Ray thought it possible that Bibi might even bring on WW3 to avoid a jail sentence. Watch The Bibi Files to get a feel for Bibi and the delusional, kleptomaniac Netanyahu family.

I would also point out that neither Mr. Trump nor Mr. Netanyahu expects to be believed. So why would you? Ignore what they say, but pay deep attention to what they do. They routinely voice nonsense, such as Trump saying he does not “believe” Tulsi’s report of the Intelligence Community’s assessment that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon. And Netanyahu, empowered by using the specter of Iran’s imaginary nuke for over 30 years to gain the support of Israel’s most dangerous citizens, those who feel entitled to commit genocide, steal their neighbors’ lands and build a Greater Israel, continues to reprise the same old BS. There is no evidence of this. Period. Think of Iraq’s WMD.

Netanyahu, as I have said before, took a gamble he had no business taking. He thought he could decapitate Iran in a surprise attack and win another 3 day war, proclaiming himself Israel’s greatest hero.

He lost that gamble. If the US does not join his unprovoked war, Israel will take a huge hit and will become something very different from what it has been. It will have to pay a steep price for its aggressions and genocidal fury. It will be known as a paper tiger. If it is known as anything at all.

If the US does join, we will face Iran, supported by Pakistan, Russia and China (which sent two warships to the Persian Gulf)—all of which DO have nuclear weapons.

Please God let this be Bibi’s war to lose. As quickly as possible. There is nothing for the US to gain by jumping off this cliff.