The Israel-Iran war was some kind of sham, which considerably weakened Israel while taking the spotlight off its bloodlust in Gaza. Took the shine off the Trump presidency too
OK, no WW3, but what about the Gazans being shot like fish in a barrel (Alex Krainer's apt phrase)? Will Trump and Netanyahu still Build Back Better in Gaza?
I could not bear to let the above photo from Elizabeth Woodworth’s substack go unnoticed.
Excerpting from the brilliant Simplicius below:
Now, let’s cover some basic facts about the conflict:
1. Through the end of it, there remains not a single shred of proof that Israeli (or American, for that matter) planes ever significantly overflew Iran at any time. Claims of ‘total air superiority’ have no grounds, and up until the final day Israel continued relying on their heavy UCAVs to strike Iranian ground targets.
The most significant proof is that Israel very enthusiastically released footage of their strikes—so how come not a single clip from that footage showed strikes from fighter-bomber jets? Every clip was from a UCAV, which is telling.
Only one clip released yesterday showed what was claimed to be a jet at night flying over an Iranian city and conducting strikes, but upon research the city turned out to be Bander Abbas:
Is it any surprise that the only extant footage of a possible plane incursion is on a literal coastal city?
Secondly, the drop tanks from Israeli planes were recorded washing up on Iran’s northernmost Caspian shores:
What does that prove?
That Israeli strikes on Tehran are originating from the Caspian, disproving ‘total air superiority’ fraud.
2. The second big takeaway:
It is now clear that Israel relied on a favored go-to modus operandi in its past three conflicts. Israel has now lost against Hamas, lost against Hezbollah, and lost to Iran. Each time, its face-saving strategy was to “decapitate the leadership”, particularly the well-known personalities like Nasrallah, Haniyeh, etc., and pretend this is somehow a war winning stroke.
In reality, it did nothing each time. Israel still lost the fight on the ground—or in the air, as it were, against Iran. Israel’s putrid army proved incapable of winning real conflicts and had to rely entirely on PR victories and America’s bank to fund various sabotage and extortion schemes against enemy political and military figures.
Think about it this way: in ten or twenty years, what will be remembered about today, the names of a few random “Iranian generals” that Israel “masterfully killed” via cowardly sneak attacks, or the fact that Israeli cities burned for the first time, Israel failed to defang Iran’s nuclear program, and flopped at every other major objective it had, including regime change?
The fact is, Israel suffered an historic humiliation that has destroyed its mystique and reputation as some kind of ‘military juggernaut’ forever. Iran can now learn from its mistakes, rebuild the few launchers and AD systems it lost, and potentially sign new pacts with Russia-China that can expand its defense capabilities.
It is interesting, however, that Iran’s airforce did not seem to participate at all—some experts suggest Iran likely relocated it entirely to the far east of the country and simply kept it out of harm’s way for the duration. Given that Israel’s air-farce was also a no-show over the country, one supposes it wasn’t an altogether bad idea.
In fact, Iran masterfully conserved its limitations and leveraged its greatest advantages during this conflict, thus limiting the damage it suffered. Too bad we’ll never know the full extent of Iran’s missile capabilities given how desperately Israel guarded any ‘sensitive’ damage leaks about the strikes on its territory. But due to how uncharacteristically quickly Israel leaped at the ceasefire offer, logic dictates that the damage Iran meted was significant and unsustainable.
In short, the only thing Israel has proved to excel at is murdering civilians and assassinating people with drones while they sleep. Just check WaPo’s release of a Mossad recording wherein the operative threatens to kill an Iranian general’s “wife and children” if he does not comply; this is Israel’s core ethos….